Hume Seminar Series: Simple Algebra and the Role of US Intelligence in National Security Threat Assessment and Risk Management

About the Event

This interactive presentation provides a practical primer on how security professionals leverage a simple algebraic formula for risk-related decisions in both the government and private sectors.  

The first part of the talk focuses on the equation itself, beginning with threat assessment as the necessary first step toward a full calculation of risk and explaining how changes in threat and other variables, such as vulnerability and consequences, affect risk calculations and associated decisions.  

The second talk illustrates how this simple formula is convenient for understanding the complex enterprise by which senior US policymakers, led by the President, confront geopolitical risks, devise and vet policy options, and make decisions to accept, mitigate, or eliminate risks through concrete actions.  

The talk concludes by illustrating how the roles of all US departments and agencies map to the risk equation and are oriented to answering three linear questions on any given potential threat: What (intends and is capable of doing us harm)?  So what (does it matter if the threat becomes real)?  Now what (are we going to do about the potential threat)?

About the Speaker

• Paul Hollingsworth - Treasurer of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers and former senior US intelligence official
  

Paul Hollingsworth recently retired after working for ten years as the senior intelligence advisor on Europe and Eurasia for the energy company BP. He previously served a 27-year career in analysis and operations at the Central Intelligence Agency, including three overseas tours and rotational assignments at the FBI and the National Security Council staff at the White House. Prior to joining the US government, he worked as a managing editor for the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute. He holds a B.A. in theology from Georgetown University and an M.A. and a Ph.D. in Byzantine history and medieval Slavic studies from the University of California (Berkeley).

If you are an individual with a disability and desire an accommodation, please contact Sarah Downer at humecenter@vt.edu during regular business hours at least 10 business days prior to the event.